Task 4Prediction Models |
IntroductionIn Task 4 the necessary theoretical ice force prediction models were developed. This dual approach - full scale measurements and theoretical modelling of the force problem - was the most promising way in providing reliable methods to predict the ice forces on marine structures for most general application.Task 4 was divided into the following sub-tasks:
Subtask 4.1Investigations on Special Ice MechanicsProblems Related to Numerical Modelling
ObjectiveInvestigated the fracture mechanisms involved at small scale ice deformation as basic ingredients of numerical modelling of the ice - structure interaction.DescriptionThe models for ice force prediction which were improved or newly developed in the framework of the project, were tested against field data and large-scale test observations. Nevertheless, these observations cover essentially a narrow range of conditions only (i.e. ice conditions, geometry of the structure, etc.) Thus, in order to increase the degree of confidence in the predictions given by the models, these need to be as much as possible physically based. For either finite element or finite difference based models of ice - structure interaction being built to determine the macroscopic properties of large ice structures as level ice or ridges, involve integration or mesh points at which the ice mechanical behaviour need to be known. Modelling this behaviour, which must hold for a small but representative volume of ice, was a key problem being addressed.Approaching the structure from the "frazzled" a unit volume of ice experiences,
a stress increase and it's response is both elastic and viscoplastic. The
relative weight of these two types of behaviour is controlled by the ice
temperature and the strain rate. Elasticity is predominant at very low
temperature and high velocity. Then the ice reacts as a brittle material.
However, in general most interactions involve a viscoplastic component
and the ice experiences "transient creep" corresponding to a work
hardening phase. The stress concentrations which occur at grain boundaries
can eventually lead to micro-cracking (at the grain scale). They can be
induced either by grain boundary sliding or by dislocation pile-ups generated
during the hardening phase. In these two cases the elastic and especially
viscoplastic anisotropy of the ice grain is essential. The evolution of
the cracking activity is influenced by the confining pressure which tends
to oppose to the opening of cracks and in the ductile regime by parameters
involved in the viscoplastic behaviour (i.e. temperature, strain-rate and
stress level) which control crack nucleation as well as crack propagation.
With increasing stresses, the increase of micro-cracking can lead to progressive
damage which can be stabilised or which can end in slabbing. At the contact
interface with the structure an increasing level of damage can result in
the formation of crushed ice. The processes acting in the structure contact
zone depend on the friction conditions at the interface.
Experimental Studies The contribution aimed on a better understanding and modelling of the mechanisms involved in the damage of ice. It consisted of both experimental and theoretical studies on the following topics. 1. Micro-mechanisms responsible for crack nucleation at the grain scale
The results on these special mechanical properties of ice engaged in
the measurements as well as on the improvements of the ice damage model
were compiled in progress reports which were made available to the
LOLEIF
participants every 6 months and in the final report at the end of the
project. These reports were disseminated to partners.
Interdependence and links with other tasks The results provided by this task are primary used by the fracture dynamics
modelling group within Subtask 4.4. Interdependence
was established between LGGE
and VTT in analysing ice failure
processes as input information for the development of the ice - structure
interaction model in Subtask 4.2. Fracture toughness
tests were carried out in co-operation with HSVA
(within the TMR Programme) which requires co-operation between LGGE
and HSVA. Finally LGGE
establishes fracture mechanisms of natural ice which is used by the fracture
modelling
group (Subtask 4.4).
Subtask 4.2Dynamic Ice - Structure Interaction Model
ObjectivesThe first objective of this Subtask was to develop a new numerical model for dynamic ice - structure interaction. The model will be applicable for any forms of vertical structures. The ice features considered include level ice, rafted ice, ice ridges, rubble fields and icebergs. Such a unifying model is not existing at present. The second objective is to derive a new load combination formula for probabilistic analysis. This helps in obtaining one of the main aims of the project: justification for a substantial decrease in the global ice load estimates.DescriptionA new physical modelThe physical reasons for the changes between simultaneous and non-simultaneous ice failure modes are not understood at present. This is one of the main reasons to the present inaccuracy in ice load predictions. The fracture dynamics modelling in Subtask 4.4 clarified details of the various ice failure processes and contact phenomena occurring at the ice - structure interface. These results were used here in connection with a new working hypothesis, which states that a cyclic change between three ice failure modes, known as horizontal cleavage cracking, pure crushing and flaking, provide a key factor in explaining several important phenomena which have been observed in laboratory tests. These included a drop of the nominal crushing pressure at a critical ice velocity, a decrease of the ice load for stiff structures and the arise of steady state vibrations at intermediate ice velocities. The results from the full scale tests (Task 2) are used extensively to verify and quantify this hypothesis. Based thereon, a new physical model for the dynamic interaction between ice features and wide structures is being developed. The influence of the structural compliance is of special importance
because the global load has been found to increase considerably in laboratory
conditions if the structure compliance increases. In full scale conditions
this load increase will be most likely impeded by the aerial randomness
of sea ice strength. Therefore, the statistical variations in the local
and aerial ice characteristics have been considered while building a new
model for dynamic ice - structure interaction.
Software development and verification The new numerical model based on existing dynamic ice - structure interaction models developed by VTT and HUT. These existing physical models used in the numerical solutions were replaced by the new physical model. The quality and reliability of the computer program is tested by comparisons to all available laboratory measurements and field observations. Thereafter it is possible to design structures which are safe from severe ice induced vibrations. The new dynamic interaction model adopts a simplified version of the
Ridge Load Model of Subtask 4.3 by using soil
mechanical equations for ice rubble. Hence, the applicability of the dynamic
model has been extended into ice ridges and rubble fields. The model was
then used to simulate the global load as a combination of the load components
due to the ridge keel, the consolidated layer and the sail. Cohesive and
frictional load components at the keel and sail are treated separately
in the time domain simulation.
Deliverables The progress of the numerical modelling of the dynamic ice - structure
interaction is compiled in interim reports every 6 months and disseminated
to all project participants
including the Advisory Committee members and the European
Commission. The final results were compiled in the final report at
the end of the project.
Interdependence and links with other tasks Co-operation was established between the Subtask's leader VTT and HUT who worked on the ridge load model (Task 4.3) as well as on the ridge properties (Subtask 2.2). Links were also established between this Subtask and all Subtasks under Task 2 (Full sale tests) as well as with Subtask 4.4 (Fracture dynamics model).
Subtask 4.3Ridge Load Model
ObjectivesExisting ridge load models are based on soil mechanics' bearing capacity approach. They can observe only simple failure planes and simple vertical structure shapes. In the LOLEIF project a new numerical analysis procedure is developed which allows to model real 3-dimensional structural shapes and ridge profiles in which complicated failure surfaces are progressively developing. No known analytical method can solve this problem. Approximate plastic limit analysis approaches fall short as well in describing the real geometry of the problem.DescriptionThe finite element method is today the most versatile tool in continuum mechanics. An analysis procedure based on the finite element method is developed to numerically simulate ridge interaction with real structures. An adaptive material and geometric non-linear 3-D finite element model which is capable to observe localised failure development was needed. Full scale measurement data from Subtask 2.2 without any scale effects provide the only reliable basis to validate the numerical model. Keel friction and cohesion are needed for keel constitutive modelling. Consolidated layer strength data are used for determining the size of its failure surface. Analysis procedure is both materially and geometrically non-linear. Two material models were considered for the consolidated layer. An ideal elastic-plastic model was used as a first approach in the FE-model. Secondly, a non-linear material model considering the macro-scale voids and damage evolution within the material is developed. Localised deformation in keel failure surfaces were investigated within simulations in which the finite element mesh was adaptively refined while the progressive failure proceeds. After the model has been validated in simple full scale tests it has been applied to more demanding geometries such as ridge load against a conical structure.The risks to achieve this goal are normal. Reasonably accurate ridge mechanical properties full scale data were measured in Subtask 2.2. Non-linear finite element analysis (FEA) is matured and existing codes (e.g. ABAQUS or ANSYS) are used as a basis. There are several research reports on localised FEA but the above mentioned commercial finite element codes are presently lacking this feature even though they incorporate adaptive meshing for reducing the discretisation error. Thus, with relatively small extra efforts all the required capabilities for ridge - structure interaction simulation can be combined. With achievable adequate accuracy the developed FEA code could remove many uncertainties in ice force design and thus be a valuable design tool for the partners of this research. NTNU further extend the theoretical modelling and included thermodynamics in the model: A multi-year ridge has survived one or more summer melt seasons and is supposed to be highly consolidated. However, for first-year ridges the internal friction and consolidation are highly influenced by the thermal balance of the ridge from its birth. This means:
The heat balance simulations were used to provide a bulk strength of the ice being used in a finite element model applicable to simulate the global load from a ridge. This Subtask fits to university environment where theoretical work can
be conducted along with postgraduate studies and as a part of a thesis
work. In this conjunction the free computer resources are valuable in developing
this kind of a non-linear numerical model.
Deliverables and Dissemination Progress reports on the development of the ridge load model were delivered
every six months, the final report 3 months before the end of the project.
These reports were provided to the partners.
Interdependence and links to other tasks HUT is the responsible partner. VTT gave a contribution to constitutive modelling and NTNU to consolidated layer thickness evolution by thermodynamic approach. This subtask was strongly related to the field measurements on ridge properties (Subtask 2.2) but also to the full scale tests conducted in subtasks 2.1, 2.3 and 2.4.
Subtask 4.4Fracture Dynamics Model
ObjectiveTo consider fracture as a failure mode and to identify parameter ranges in which it is the critical mode so that this can be used in models.DescriptionIn the past most research on ice loading has considered crushing or flaking as the dominant ice failure mode. This is justified by the fact that this failure mode appears to provide the highest global loads. However, full-scale experiences show, that besides crushing there are other failure modes such as splitting, spalling, and large-scale transverse fracture of ice floes and that those alternative modes may govern.The phenomena of splitting spalling and crushing is examined within a fracture mechanics framework. This subtask considered the following general influences:
Linear-elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) is in its own way as confining an idealisation as plasticity. It would be a pity to drop one narrow idealisation only to be limited by another. Real ice is more complicated and the interaction between fracture and creep is important. This subtask explored the applications of modern approaches to creep fracture. Further, research in this subtask analyses the interaction between different modes on a more rational and fundamental basis, properly based on identifiable material and geometric parameters and on dimensional analysis. A cohesive crack model was used to link quantitatively the measured load versus crack-opening displacements measured in the field with the fracture energy, and to extrapolate in quantitative terms the influence of specimen size on this fracture resistance. A feature of cohesive crack modelling is the assumption that a significant portion of the non-linear deformation can be expected to localise on a crack band ahead of the crack. As the rate of loading is reduced, bulk deformation can be expected to become significant if not dominant, and indeed at a slow enough loading rate bulk creep would occur without fracture. This facet of the modelling requires a constitutive law for the sea ice in bulk, and both the cohesive crack and the bulk creep needs to be modelled. The field tests include cyclic and other load history effects for the purpose of defining the necessary constitutive behaviour more thoroughly. A pragmatic approach is through a non-linear visco-elastic model which treats the ice sheet as a two-dimensional elastic continuum, and the properties represent the response of a typical first-year ice sheet. The work initiated at Clarkson University including comparisons was extended by full-scale measurements carried out as part of the field program and to extend the comparison to the extensive sets of data from Canadian measurements. Adequate physically based constitutive models of sea ice are not yet available. Thus this subtask applied a phenomenological model with its base in the non-linear theory of visco-elasticity. It incorporated the non-linear visco-elastic characterisation of ice under tensile loading for stress magnitudes from very small to almost tensile strength for long times and complex loading histories, the change in characterisation parameters between different scales, and the ability to predict the rate dependency of fracture through visco-elastic theory in conjunction with an applicable fracture theory. Knowledge of the fracture energy variation with scale and constitutive behaviour is essential if the time dependent loading on the structure was modelled adequately, and the impact of ice impact velocity was incorporated. The cohesive crack model, combined with a visco-elastic description of the bulk ice, plays a significant role in deciding whether failure will be by splitting or crushing. A final objective is once and for all to resolve the much disputed question
of "scale effects", which has bedevilled ice force research for
many years. Scale effects in other areas of mechanics and physics have
always responded to a more complete physical understanding and there is
no reason why this should not also apply to ice. An important consequence
is to derive at a clear position about which kinds of model scale experiments
can be applied directly to full-scale predictions, and which require correction.
General The American specialist Prof. John Dempsey (Clarkson
University) is involved in this subtask as Visiting Professor at CU.
He is one of the leading authorities in ice fracture mechanics and the
project benefited strongly from his contributions.
Deliverables A progress report on this activity was submitted every six months. The
subtask's final deliverable was a soundly based documented ice force prediction
model which takes account of fracture, consistent with measurements taken
in other activities. The results were communicated to the industry by conference
papers, papers in scientific articles and popular articles.
Interdependence and links to other tasks Fracture dynamics modelling needed input from actual ice structure interaction and ice fracture processes obtained in Subtasks 2.3 and 2.4. Representatives of this group observed the full scale measurements at the lighthouse. Of great importance is the co-operation with LGGE who carried out the experiments on fracture toughness of ice as well as basic ice fracture tests on small-scale for formulation of an advanced ice damage model within Subtask 4.1.
Subtask 4.5Probability Approach
ObjectivesAssembled a systematic probabilistic model and evaluate it's reliability, including sensitivity to inaccurate knowledge about transition parameter values where the ice failure mode changes.DescriptionDeterministic methods of ice load prediction tend to overestimate the real ice forces, as conservative values are adopted for many of the parameters of the ice load model. Probabilistic methods offer a rational approach to such situations and can most likely help define more realistic ice loads for design. A comparison was made for a typical coastal structure in the Baltic Sea of the results obtained by a deterministic and a probabilistic approach respectively.For the probabilistic approach a probabilistic description of the ice conditions near the structure was needed first. The parameters of the probabilistic model included at least ice thickness, ice strength, temperature, ice velocity, salinity, porosity, direction of ice movement and also different forms of ice features, such as level ice, rafted ice, ridged ice, etc. Probabilities of encountering these features were incorporated as well. The "Achilles heel" of such a model is its ability to distinguish
between parameter combinations which induce different ice failure modes.
The distinction is important because different ice failure modes can induce
very different ice forces. A load model describes the ice force in each
different interaction scenario. Using a load model in conjunction with
the probabilistic description of the ice regime a probability density function
for the total ice force can be calculated. This function can then be used
to define a characteristic design load to be compared with the results
of a deterministic approach.
Deliverables The approach described above is written as software. Initially it comprises a research tool but it is intended later to make it accessible as a user friendly software package developed as part of a separate program / activity. Progress of the study and the final results were compiled every 6 months
in interim reports (six monthly management and progress reports and annual
reports) and at the end of the project in the final report within
Task
6. These reports were disseminated to
all
project participants including the European
Commission and the Advisory Committee. Key results were communicated
to the industry by conference papers and journal articles.
Interdependence and links to other tasks CU, NTNU and VTT co-operated closely on this task. Also versatile input from all other partners of the project into the probability approach was provided. Prof. K. Shkhinek of St. Petersburg State Technical University substantially contribute to this task. Special links were established to the full scale measurement groups (Task 2) and all it's subtasks) which provided the input to the probability function. Further, a link was established to Subtask Subtask 4.2 where a new load combination formula is developed for the probability model. |
Copyright © of this page:
The LOLEIF Project Consortium
- all rights reserved,
in compliance with applicable terms
and conditions for
European Commission Research and
Development Projects
and agreements within the LOLEIF
Project Consortium.
![]() |
Last update: 2001-07-22 |